HISTORY LESSONS
  • The Books
  • The Blog
  • The channel
  • Extra Credit
  • Visit Victory Independent Planning

Making Time⌛️

1/1/2020

0 Comments

 
Picture
Synopsis: Even the greatest investors and most
powerful autocrats can only beat time for so long.  🗓
He could hear the rhythmic footfalls coming from around the corner. Someone was setting a quick pace and others, the minions, were following. It was January 1st, 45BC, but in any century, the footfalls would tell the same story. The boss was coming.
The man sighed, shuffled papers about this desk, checked his calculations one more time and then braced for the inevitable.
 
“Are you sure this is going to work?” The voice boomed before his doorway even darkened. And then, into his humble workspace spilled two thick muscled lackeys and his employer, a square jawed man with a hawkish nose and avian eyes. When the boss gazed upon you, it was like taking a winter dip in the Tiber without a toga. You did not feel his gaze so much as endure it.
 
“It will. I’ve run the calculations several times. Now we just have to sit back and let it work. There is nothing else we can do.”
 
“Sosigenes, my Alexandrian genius, when have you ever known me to sit back and be patient with…anything?” The young engineer and astronomer, Sosigenes of Alexandria, could not be sure, but he thought the boss smiled a bit and his cold eyes seemed to twinkle.
 
“Ah no,” he swallowed hard, “no Caesar I have not.”
 
Gaius Julius Caesar, alleged descendent of the Trojan Prince Aeneus, and therefore of the goddess Venus, conqueror of the Gauls and ruler of the Roman Empire smiled benevolently at his employee. “Well, then, why don’t you take the rest of the day for yourself. And Sosigenes….”
 
“Yes, Caesar?”
 
“Happy New Year.”  With a flourish, the ruler of the known world and his entourage disappeared, their footsteps echoing again of the cobblestone street and the marble colonnades. Sosigenes exhaled for what seemed like the first time in a long while, glancing one more time  at the calculations in front of him.
 
“Three hundred sixty-five and one quarter,” he murmured passing hand over his face to wipe away the sweat on his brow, “If I’m wrong, at least I won’t be around to hear about it.” Then he laughed. “None of us will be around to hear about it. Happy New Year indeed.”
 
Not long after seizing power in Rome, Julius Caesar had moved decisively to deal with the passage of time. If anyone had the power to do it, he seemingly did. But Caesar’s aim was not long or eternal life, both of which would prove elusive to him a mere year later when he was assassinated. In 45 BC, Caesar was concerned about the Roman calendar, which was based on the lunar cycle and frequently fell out of sync with the seasons. This was politically dangerous as it often extended political terms or interfered with elections. Summoned from Alexandria, Sosigenes urged his boss to ditch the moon and embrace a solar calendar of 365.25 days. He was wrong, the actual solar year being 365.242199 days, but right about the fact that everyone he knew was long gone before the error was discovered. It was not until1582 AD that Pope Gregory XIII and his astronomers accounted or the 11 minute a year difference, replacing the Julian Calendar with the Gregorian.
 
Here are a few lessons from antiquity on the passage of time:
 
1) Calendars can change. Indeed, in order to get the calendar back on track Sosigenes added sixty-seven days to the first year of the Julian Calendar. Months are arbitrary and man-made creations, not some mystical force driving our investments. So, don’t put too much confidence in stock market shortcuts like the January effect, or sell in May and go away.
 
2) A modern philosopher named Bob Dylan once noted that “the times they are ‘a changing.” But human beings find it hard to recognize that. Instead we like to use the very recent past as a predictor of the future, overestimating the probability of current events continuing. Gaius Julius Caesar figured that being alive and being the Emperor were good predictors of the future.  A few of his friendly Senators proved that he was wrong, that he suffered from recency bias, and that he ultimately suffered from many stab wounds as well.
 
3) Compounding, usually a force for good, has massive effects over the long term, also accumulating and exacerbating your errors. The reinvestment of earnings or interest creates exponential growth as long as you do something seemingly simple: leave things alone. If you stray from the wisdom of the ancients (or modern oracles like your humble author), or aren’t perfect in your timing, then your errors will compound at a rate sufficient to affect you and perhaps your retirement lifestyle. Note that this won’t take anywhere near 1,500 years to make itself known. And without a wayward astronomer handy, you’ll have to take the blame yourself.

Picture
Photo: Bing.com, Free to share and use
Links & Sources:
  1. https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/new-years-day 
0 Comments

    RSS Feed

    Don't wait for history to happen...

      Sign up to have your lessons delivered to your inbox.

    Deliver My History Lessons!

    Archives

    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017

    Categories

    All
    ABL
    Action Bias
    Advice
    Advisor
    Anchoring Bias
    Annual Recap
    Astronomy
    Aviation
    Bandwagon Effect
    Baseball
    Broadway
    Bull Market
    China
    Christmas
    Civil War
    Cognitive Bias
    Cold War
    Columbus
    Confirmation Bias
    Corrections
    COVID
    Cyclicality
    DALBAR
    Darwin
    Data
    D Day
    Diversification
    Earnings
    Economics
    Emotions
    Expert
    Expert Bias
    Federal Reserve
    Fiduciary
    Financial Media
    FOMO
    Football
    Founders
    France
    Fund Flows
    GDP
    Gift Planning
    Globalism
    Golf
    Government
    High Jump
    Impressionism
    Inflation
    Interest Rates
    Italy
    January Effect
    Journalism
    Julius Caesar
    Loss Aversion
    Market Timing
    Music
    Normandy
    October
    Oregon State
    Performance
    Pilgrims
    Planning
    Politics
    Prognostication
    Property Rights
    Rationality
    Recency Bias
    Regulation
    Retirement
    Revolutionary War
    Risk
    Roman History
    Santa
    Sell In May
    Sentiment
    Spanish Flu
    Statistics
    Taxes
    Technology
    Tennis
    Trade
    Trade War
    Unintended Consequences
    VIX
    Wall Of Worry
    Wild West
    WW I
    WW II

Patrick Huey is the author of two books:  "History Lessons for the Modern Investor" and "the Seven Pillars of (Financial) Wisdom"; this is considered an outside business activity for Patrick Huey and is separate and apart from his activities as an investment advisor representative with Dynamic Wealth Advisors.  The material contained in these books are the current opinions of the author, Patrick Huey but not necessarily those of Dynamic Wealth Advisors.   The opinions expressed in these books are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. They are intended to provide education about the financial industry. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any past performance discussed in these books is no guarantee of future results.  As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. 
  • The Books
  • The Blog
  • The channel
  • Extra Credit
  • Visit Victory Independent Planning