LESSON EIGHT: Extrapolation Celebration

SEE IT AGAIN (AND AGAIN): I’ll get right to it, because you know it is coming. You can’t talk about Groundhog Day and not tell people to see Groundhog Day (1993). That is like talking about baseball and ignoring the World Series. Bill Murray may have become a movie star battling gophers, but he isn’t bad versus the groundhog either. He plays a weatherman who relives the same day over and over, to which we can all relate. Then he gets it right and can move on with his life, which only happens in the movies. 

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GO WHOLE HOG: Of course, the movie has an excellent supporting cast including a couple of stand-ins for Punxsutawney Phil. But Phil isn’t the only one hogging the weather- man duties around the country. Get the details on Phil and his cousins, including Shubencadie Sam and Staten Island Chuck.

Beyond Punxsutawney: Meet the Other Groundhogs

By virtue of living east of every other celebrity groundhog in North America, Nova Scotia native Sam, a resident of Shubencadie Provincial Wildlife Park in Canada, takes the prize as the earliest to issue a Groundhog Day prediction regarding whether spring will come early or late.

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GET HIP, MAN: Alas, the poor weatherman has been the subject of jokes for generations. But George Carlin at least invented one that got his forecasts right: “Al Sleet, here and tonight’s forecast? Dark. Continued dark tonight, turning to partly light in the morning.” See, it’s not that hard! Probably not as hard as getting through this entire bit from George Carlin: Again! (1978) while only using one of the seven words you can’t say on television. 

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​GET RULED OUT: Feeling your inner guru stirring and want to try your hand at forecasting? Fine. The Harvard Business Review presents six rules for making a forecast. Invoke rule number six immediately and “know when to not make a forecast.” Like now. 

Six Rules for Effective Forecasting

People at cocktail parties are always asking me for stock tips, and then they want to know how my predictions have turned out. Their requests reveal the common but fundamentally erroneous perception that forecasters make predictions. We don't, of course: Prediction is possible only in a world in which events are preordained and no amount of action in the present can influence future outcomes.

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SEEK SOME STATUS: Maybe sleep deprivation has more to do with the unreliability of forecasts. Regardless, the extra rest won’t hurt you. And this New York Times article demonstrating that sleep is the new status symbol, might help you gear up with the new gadgets your friends will envy. You are feeling very sleepy...

Sleep Is the New Status Symbol

At M.I.T.'s Media Lab, the digital futurist playground, David Rose is investigating swaddling, bedtime stories and hammocks, as well as lavender oil and cocoons.